Hello Hodor, I had this problem too for two module. I had just applied a few fixes that I needed before the update.
You can do this:
In /inc/classes/BxDolInstallerUtils.php
At line 10

define('BX_FORCE_AUTOUPDATE_MAX_CHANGED_FILES_PERCENT', 0.05);

Replace 0.05 by 0.99

Update, then change back to 0.99 by 0.05 to return to the original state.

LeonidS & Alex T⚜️ , why did I have to do this while "force updates for modified files" is checked? 

For example, I had this problem with the forum module, or I had just applied the fix that related to the author's counter, the change was not very important, and yet he did not want to update .